If climate change is a now-a-day myth for many people, the best thing they have to do is to check the international statistics or even better the wholesale market. For coffee lovers' negative scenarios have been predicted about the prosperity and continuous cultivation of Coffea Arabica [1].
Coffee is produced from the Coffea Arabica (also known as the Arabica variety), combined with the plant species Coffea Canephora (also known as the Robusta variety), which thrives in the tropical zone countries. Climate change, and in particular global warming, has contributed negatively to the course and progress of coffee plant production [2].
In early 1990, small changes in temperature, for the sensitive Arabica variety, triggered the appearance of the Hemileia vastatrix, a fungus of the genus Pucciniales that severely damages the foliage of the tree. The appearance of fungi and other diseases was a global problem in 1990. Eighteen years later, 40% of world production was lost. For the year 2017, global production was 5.8 million tonnes, where 15% of it was extinguished because of the squamous cell [2].
Figure 1. Hemileia vastatrix limestone on the C. Arabica tree foliage. (Source: https://cen.acs.org/articles/96/i7/end-worlds-popular-coffee-nigh.html )
What is the future of production?
C.Arabica species originate from intersections of C.canephora and C.eugenioides at the end of the 19th century. These preferences relate to superiority in taste and to the durability of diseases of the time. Today, the genetic pattern of commercial Arabica is considered to be "poor", as A. Davis points out in terms of its resilience to disease and climate change. Today, 870 different wild Arabica varieties are enriched to enrich the genetic motif for a more durable product. [2]
By the end of the century, climate change will have transformed 60% of the cultivated lands of Ethiopia, one of the largest producer countries. According to the International Coffee Research Institute, the solution will be through a genetic modification, namely the crossing with wild species of C. Arabica. As a result, the WCR genetic engineering team has created 47 new species resistant to fungus-induced disease and will enter the market in 2022. Further research is also being carried out on the application of CRISPR to C.Arabica's genetic material [3], [ 4]
Despite the fact that so far data cannot assist in a comprehensive conclusion, future scenarios predict 65% loss of cropland, while up to 100% by 2080 are expected in areas of high vulnerability. Temperature changes play a decisive role in the course of the area as the ideal conditions for C.Arabica range from 18-21 °C. Unfortunately, the increase in temperature tends to exceed 24 ° C by the end of the century, making it difficult for several citrus fruits to thrive. These results include natural conditions as variables, and anthropogenic intervention to prevent results is not taken into account. In short, there may be more positive scenarios. [5]
Conclusion
The loss of coffee from everyday life is probably not too late, and it is more likely that we pay poor quality coffee at a very expensive price, as the price of coffee has already increased. The coffee price has risen steadily over the last three years and has fallen steeply since early February 2018 to $ 1.5 per pound, while the highest price in 2012 was $ 3 a pound. A similar course is expected to present several foods on the market, while some already present. Climate change is also going to be a nutritional change for years to come, calling for many of our habits to change now as many foods and are under high pressure due to warming in the tropical zone. Perhaps the situation will be simultaneously serious and vitally important, when basic foods receive the same threat. [1]
References
[1]. http://www.ico.org/coffee_prices.asp (Last visit, 28.06.2018)
[2]. https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32736366 (Last visit, 28.06.2018)
[3]. https://cen.acs.org/articles/96/i7/end-worlds-popular-coffee-nigh.html (Last visit, 28.06.2018)
[4]. https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/pressroom/presspacs/2018/acs-presspac-february-14-2018/coffee-threatened-by-climate-change-disease-pests.html (Last visit, 28.06.2018)
[5]. The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities. Aaron P. Davis , Tadesse Woldemariam Gole, Susana Baena, Justin Moat . Published: November 7, 2012 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0047981
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